Paul Allen, of Ancestry.com has developed very interesting method to predict number of users joined Google+ so far. According to this methodology Google+ will surpass 10,000,000 users today and could reach 20 million users by this weekend if invitations are left open.
Let me explain how this prediction works. He took US Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compared it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. Separated U.S. users from non U.S. Then, using a sample of 100-200 surnames, he was able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. After that he used that number and calculated ratio of U.S. to non-U.S. users to generate worldwide estimates. It came out as 1 US user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users. This ratio is subject to change slowly but based on the statistics, Paul could predict approximate number of users joined Google+. You can find complete analysis on Paul Allen’s post.
This shows how fast Google+ is growing and that also makes it fastest growing social network. Google very cautiously enabling ‘send invitation’ option for each user joined. Its very difficult to handle such an explosive growth of a web app without any performance issues. Google recently ran out of memory on Google+ for couple of hours.
Though the numbers are really exciting, Google has not officially confirmed it. We are following up with Google officials and will update the post in future.